[Article by Ryan Porter of Snoqualmie Weather]
By the time of year that October rolls around, with the long nights and much lower sun angle, if the air is relatively stagnant, we’re very likely going to get FOG. That’s been the story the last few mornings. Friday and Saturday the fog burned off to gorgeous afternoons, but a weak front that brushed us today kept things overcast this afternoon.
Monday we should be back to areas of morning fog, but that should give way to afternoon sunshine. Same story for Tuesday and Wednesday, with somewhat warmer afternoons that might reach 70°.
I think it’s wishful thinking for my tomatoes at this point:(
The bigger change starts to occur in the atmosphere as the upper level ridge moves east mid-week, bringing a more southwesterly flow. Thursday looks overcast ahead of the next system.
Models had continued to shift back the timing of rain for this coming week, but now appear to be in consensus for meaningful precipitation to begin Friday through Sunday. Not an atmospheric river by any stretch, but perhaps averaging 3/4″ each of those days.
A notable change will be the lowering high temperatures. Highs may struggle to hit 50° a week from now. We’ll also keep an eye on some ensembles calling for a rather blustery Sunday (11th).
Let’s take a look at the 8-14 day outlook from NOAA. Cooler and wet, consistent with how the tail end of this coming week looks destined to pan out.
From a temperature standpoint, October is known to come in like a lamb, and go out like a lion. The average High Oct 1 is 65° but by Halloween we’re down to 55°. The largest monthly deviation for any calendar month.
Have a great week!